Kentucky Politics

And the winner is...

The Republican Party of Kentucky bounced back this election after taking it in the shorts with last year's defeat of Governor Ernie Fletcher. In fact, you'll have to look high and low throughout America to find a state where the Republicans did better than here in the Commonwealth.

U.S. Senator Mitch McConnell cruised to victory with a nice cushion, winning nearly everywhere in the state except Jefferson County,of course, and just a few other Democrat strongholds. The fact that the GOP leader of the U.S. Senate survived in one of the worst year's to be a Republican ever is testament to the skill of McConnell and his team.

That team includes RPK Chairman Steve Robertson and McConnell's campaign manager, Justin Brasell. When the Democrats and their pals in the Mainstream News Media were crowing about Kentucky turning blue, Brasell and Robertson put together a voter turnout machine that should be the envy of the nation.

Besides McConnell's reelection, the Kentucky Senate remains firmly in Republican hands, keeping the same 22-15-1 advantage over the Democrats. Only a one-seat net gain by the Democrats in the House blemished the RPK's record.

Case in point: Governor Steve Beshear threw the kitchen sink at Republican David Givens in the 9th Senate District in hopes of winning that open seat for his buddy, Steve Newberry. Givens hammered Newberry; it wasn't even close. (Kudos also go to Givens' campaign manager, Judy Piazza.)

Looking forward to 2010 and the campaign for the seat currently held by U.S. Senator Jim Bunning (R), the Republicans find themselves in a much better position to hold the seat, no matter who runs. Rule-of-thumb: After one party sweeps into the White House and gains big majorities in Congress, the party out of power has the wind at its back two years later in the mid-term election. (Has anyone noticed that U.S. Rep. Ben Chandler-D has taken himself out of that race?)

Keep on keepin' on, people! Only three years 'til the next gubernatorial election. You've got a great start toward shaking things up in Frankfort. Again.

Warning to GOP straight ticket voters: Machines may be defective

Due to concerned complaints received, the Republican Party of Kentucky is issuing a warning to all voters. For those voting straight ticket on an eSlate machine, please scroll through and make sure all Republican candidates are selected.

The state party has received reports from voters who selected the "straight ticket" that some of their votes for candidates may not have been counted.

Voters experiencing problems while voting at their precincts are encouraged to call the Louisville Victory Office at (502) 498-5191 and ask to speak with an attorney.

Brett Guthrie: Time to get in David Boswell's face

Dear Brett:

If you want people to call you "Congressman" after November 4, you're going to have to start throwing back some of the garbage that David Boswell and his Democrat thug friends are giving you.

Boswell & Co. have lied about you and your family's business. Now, this from people who, unlike you and your family, don't make anything except trouble, and have little concern for those who create jobs and meet a payroll. You should take time, Brett, and ponder the weight of that reality. Take full measure of what these Democrats are doing not only to you and your family, but also to every independent business owner in America.

Your political opponent is not your friend. He is your avowed enemy. He will put you and your company under because you are in the way.

Now, wake up, take up arms against this sea of troubles and oppose them with vigor and dogged persistence. If you do that, your allies will be energized and they will join you in your noble cause.

God speed, my friend.

Visit Brett Guthrie's website: http://guthrieforcongress.com/

GOP Convention low-key but energized

Am here in Minneapolis where the summer is still with us with higher-than-normal humidly and warm temps in the mid-80s. Despite the weather that Minnesotans would call hot, the demeanor here at the Republican National Convention has been congenial, low-key and fun...and ready for November.

Arriving here this afternoon, the convention ended with a warmly received presentation from First Lady Laura Bush and First-Lady-in-Waiting Cindy McCain. Many who had planned to leave the convention early hung around for the Laura & Cindy Show. The GOP faithful proclaim their whole-hearted support for the McCain-Palin ticket, taking pains to express their doubts from earlier in the year, even a few weeks ago. But, McCain's positioning of late, along with putting Governor Sarah Palin of Alaska on his ticket, have had the effect of energizing conservatives.

As far as the story of the day concerning Palin's daughter, . , and her pending marriage and birth of a child, we have heard repeated comments this evening reflecting the following, "Bring it on! ....Let's make this personal, something Senator McCain has for months cautioned against and Senator Obama hasn't said a word about."

But, Obama did speak out against bloggers like the DailyKos.com and others who aggressively pursued Palin's 17-year-old daughter. We'll keep you advised of the situation and whether Obama is a straight shooter or speaks with forked tongue on this issue.

Larry Forgy: Kentucky orator, political sage

The Courier-Journal's Joe Gerst hit the bull's eye last Monday with his column, "Where have all the great political orators gone?" He listed Kentucky greats such as Alben Barkley, Happy Chandler, Louie Nunn and Larry Forgy.

Although he regrettably was never elected to statewide office - though he came perilously close - Forgy continues to regale audiences, both Republican and Democrat, with rich American oratory not found in today's political settings.

Yes, Barack Obama offers up a message to which many resonate as if he were a modern day messiah. Yet, he treads too close to the messianic line for some people's comfort.

Forgy, however, brings you along a rich journey of Kentucky history and political lore that's enlightening without the off-putting sense that he may take himself too seriously. He's 100% Kentuckian and Kentuckians are anything but royalists or messiahs.

You may differ with him politically, and differ with him greatly. But, you'll never find Larry Forgy snubbing you because of it. On the contrary, I've seen him join in conversation and friendly banter with Democrats as well as Republicans. His wealth of knowledge and quick wit arm him as a conversationalist and debater.

During one of his speeches last year, Forgy had the room "Amen"-ing along with him, building a case for Republicans to stay with then Governor Ernie Fletcher in the party primary. Forgy quoted at length the words of many, from the governor he once served, Louie Nunn, to the Gospel St. Luke. Later, I asked him for a copy of his speech.

"I don't have one. Next time, bring a recorder," he told me. Forgy was right; he doesn't write his speeches. He does work on them, nonetheless. He will sound out friends on themes he plans to talk about. It's his own way of testing new material on people to see if there's a spark. Apparently, it's a technique that works for him. The Forgy Method, you might call it.

One thing that underpins his orations is Forgy's depth of knowledge and grasp of history, literature and the arts. He reads just about everything. Ask his friend, Lowell Reese, long-time publisher of the Kentucky Gazette. The two of them have spent more than a few Saturday afternoons rummaging through used book stores.

We'll close with this excerpt from Gerth's column:

Nunn could turn a phrase with the best of them. During the 1995 gubernatorial primary, Nunn said of Forgy, whom he had once mentored, "I'm an old man, and I don't intend to be smeared by a man that I carried longer than his mother did."

And Forgy, who learned his speaking skills from Nunn, was nearly the old man's equal. That same year, he traveled the state, setting up then-state Democratic Party chairman Terry McBrayer as his foil.

With his heavy, raspy Logan County drawl, he would describe Paul Patton's choice to lead the party something like this: "Terry Mac-Brayer, with his eye-talian suits; hair, lo-o-o-ng as Moses; and a Michael Dukakis button, big as a sunflower."

(Read on...)

Bellweather Senate District 17 overwhelmingly GOP

Incumbent GOP State Senator Damon Thayer holds a commanding 20-point lead over Democrat challenger Robert Powell, according to a survey released this morning by the national polling firm, Public Opinion Strategies.

This Bluegrass district of four counties -- Grant, Scott, Owen and Kenton -- has a party registration that strongly tilts Democrat, 53% versus 38% Republican. However, Thayer defeats Powell 53% to 33%. Moreover, U.S. Senator Mitch McConnell and John McCain dominate in the 17th District. McConnell's ahead  57% to 36% for Democrat Bruce Lunsford.

In the presidential race, it's McCain over Barack Obama 57% to 29%. Not even close in any of the races. What's significant is if Kentucky Democrats are to cut into the Republicans' State Senate majority, they would have to be competitive in the 17th. Thayer's campaign now has about $200,000 cash on hand compared to only $4,000 for Powell.

Bottom line, according to Public Opinion Strategies, "There's little question that this district is going to stay in Republican hands. It's tilted GOP from top to bottom, and Damon Thayer's ID and image advantage over Robert Powell is all that's needed to keep this safely in GOP hands in the fall."  Margin of error for the poll is +5.66%, and was conducted July 22-23. Thayer was first elected to the Kentucky Senate in a 2003 special election and won a full term the next year.

John McCain to hold June 28 fund-raiser in Louisville

GOP presidential nominee John McCain comes to Louisville on June 28 for a major campaign fund-raiser, according to Kentucky Republican sources.

Cathy Bailey, McCain's Kentucky campaign chairwoman and a major party fund-raiser, has assembled an impressive leadership committee for the event and is setting an ambitious goal.

Assisting her are former White House Deputy Political Director Scott Jennings and former RPK Chairman John McCarthy, who now heads his own firm, McCarthy Strategic Solutions in Frankfort. Jennings, with Peratus Public Relations in Louisville, reports that the campaign netted $200,000 last Friday at a fund-raiser in Bailey's home.

Mike Huckabee, ex-Republican presidential hopeful, was the featured speaker at the event attended by nearly 100 guests, telling them how important the reelection of U.S. Senator Mitch McConnell is to the people of Kentucky. Huckabee attended the fund-raiser at Bailey's home after speaking at the national convention of the National Rifle Association, also in Louisville.

If last Friday's event, which was organized in less than 72 hours, is any indication, GOP officials believe the June 28 fund-raiser promises to be a success. Funds will be split between the McCain presidential campaign and the Republican Party of Kentucky's Victory Fund.

Congressional races mostly quiet across Kentucky

Kentucky has six congressional districts and only three have contests in tomorrow's primary election. The spotlight tomorrow will be on the 2nd Congressional District where Democrats David Boswell and Reid Haire, both of Owensboro, are vying to see who will face State Senator Brett Guthrie (R-Bowling Green) in November.

Boswell, a state senator and former state agriculture commissioner, last week launched a radio ad attack on Haire, Daviess county judge executive, calling him a tax raiser. (Since when has been pro-tax hikes been a negative thing among Democrats, especially this year?) Reid's TV spots feature his 10 years as the county's exec. Without survey data to say who's ahead in this one but locals say Boswell has the edge. These same observers report Guthrie should win easily in the general, no matter who wins for the Democrats.

Louisville's 3rd Congressional District is where Republicans are battling for the honor of facing U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth (D) in the fall election. Anne Northup, who held the seat for a decade until Yarmuth knocked her off in 2006, is poised to win tomorrow. She's been able to set the tone for the primary and dominated her four male opponents, notably local developer Chris Thieneman.

Thieneman had been expected to mount a strong race by some conservatives, but his abrupt exit and re-entry early in the campaign damaged his chances. Meanwhile, Corley Everett will hold a news conference today to announce he's dropping out of the race and endorsing Thieneman. Everett aligns himself with the Ron Paul faction of the GOP.

The 6th Congressional District has a primary between two Republicans, John Larson and Tony McCurdy, one of whom will face incumbent U.S. Rep. Ben Chandler (D-Versailles) in November. McCurdy has the edge here due to the fact that he's campaigned more aggressively and staked out conservative positions versus Larson's more moderate orientation.

Don't know if Chandler's and Yarmuth's support for Obama will damage their reelection prospects, but they do appear to have aligned themselves with the liberal-left faction of their party, not a popular position in conservative Kentucky. Obama's now behind John McCain by some 30 points in statewide polls, indicating a blow-out for the Republicans in the general election. It could be enough to push Northup over the finish line in a close race.

In Kentucky's other three congressional races, incumbent U.S. Reps. Ed Whitfield (R-1), Geoff Davis (R-4) and Hal Rogers (R-5) have only token opposition, if any, and are expected to be reelected in a walk.

Quiet before the storm: 3rd CD race

Louisville will be the key battleground to watch this election as three important races converge in what could be a national headline grabber. A beneficiary of all the attention may well be Anne Northup, who represented Kentucky's largest city in the U.S. House for 10 years, fending off the assaults of Democrats and the Courier-Journal all the while.

Following her surprise defeat in 2006 to liberal-left Democrat John Yarmuth, Northup jumped back into politics the following January to take on fellow Republican Governor Ernie Fletcher. She did well in fund-raising and put $1 million of her own money in the race and held the incumbent to 50% of the vote in a three-person primary battle. Many didn't think Northup would jump back in this year's congressional contest against Yarmuth. The field suddenly cleared when a major contender, Erwin Roberts dropped out, so Northup opted to plunge ahead.

Today, the calculus is a bit different than two years ago. Barack Obama, an African-American with great appeal in Louisville, will be at the top of the Democratic ticket along with either Bruce Lunsford or Greg Fischer in the U.S. Senate slot. Opposite them on the GOP side will be John McCain for president and U.S. Senator Mitch McConnell. 

McConnell's strength in Louisville, combined with McCain's appeal to not only conservatives but moderates and independent voters, could give Northup the added firepower she'll need to go up against the likes of Yarmuth. Despite his liberal voting record in Congress and inordinate amount of time on the golf course in this his first term, Yarmuth steered clear of making mistakes that would render him vulnerable in his first reelection contest.

That puts added pressure on Northup to combine forces with McCain and McConnell to get out the vote in Louisville. The intensity of their ground game could be matched by the the Democrats who are expected to concentrate their efforts in Louisville due to Obama's urban appeal versus the rest of Kentucky.

First, however, Northup has to win Tuesday's Republican primary where she faces opposition from a crowded field, including local real estate developer Chris Thieneman. He's cranked up the volume on his campaign in recent days but hasn't overcome self-inflicted wounds from when he abruptly withdrew his candidacy in January and declared himself a Democrat. Now, Thieneman's back in the running, but tomorrow's another day and maybe he'll change his mind.

On Tuesday, look for a Northup win and the start of the general election battle in which she's expected to ramp up her aggressive style of campaigning to win back the seat she lost in 2006.

Senate race is McConnell's to lose

With dark clouds hovering over Republican races across America, U.S. Senator Mitch McConnell remains one of the bright spots with a double-digit lead over Democrat contenders Bruce Lunsford and Greg Fischer.

McConnell could well have been on the defensive at this point of the campaign, much as former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle (D-South Dakota) was in his 2004 reelection battle against U.S. Rep. John Thune. Republicans zeroed in on Daschle for two years, pounding away. In the end, the GOP assault and Thune's popularity won out.

Democrats and their MoveOn.org comrades this election cycle thought they'd put up a similar assault against McConnell, the Republican Senate leader. After all, they reasoned, turnabout's fair play. The "Ditch Mitch" movement was born, thanks to some political activists from Massachusetts and Washington DC. They put together a war room, launched a website and even conducted a covert campaign with all kinds of cheesy insinuations. To date, their toxicity has fallen way short of the mark.

McConnell set out to innoculate weak areas, burnish his credentials as a proactive senator for the people of Kentucky, and even show the "Softer Side of Mitch." In an election year when many safe incumbent Republicans could go down in a hail of gunfire, thanks to a lackluster economy, $3.75 a gallon gasoline and an Iraq War hangover, Mitch McConnell remains "strong as new rope" for reelection.

Today's Herald-Leader poll shows him leading Lunsford and Fischer by 12 points each. Considering the fact that GOP flunks the generic ballot test by 10 to 15 points, that's a relatively strong position. Also, both Democrats have yet to undergo the withering scrutiny of a campaign, the likes of which McConnell & Co. promise to deliver.

November is about six months away. Barack Obama's being at the top of the ticket in Kentucky guarantees down-ballot Democratic candidates at least a five-point drag. With that kind of undertow, we could even see some GOP surprises in the congressional and legislative races. A trend worth watching.