Quiet before the storm: 3rd CD race

Louisville will be the key battleground to watch this election as three important races converge in what could be a national headline grabber. A beneficiary of all the attention may well be Anne Northup, who represented Kentucky's largest city in the U.S. House for 10 years, fending off the assaults of Democrats and the Courier-Journal all the while.

Following her surprise defeat in 2006 to liberal-left Democrat John Yarmuth, Northup jumped back into politics the following January to take on fellow Republican Governor Ernie Fletcher. She did well in fund-raising and put $1 million of her own money in the race and held the incumbent to 50% of the vote in a three-person primary battle. Many didn't think Northup would jump back in this year's congressional contest against Yarmuth. The field suddenly cleared when a major contender, Erwin Roberts dropped out, so Northup opted to plunge ahead.

Today, the calculus is a bit different than two years ago. Barack Obama, an African-American with great appeal in Louisville, will be at the top of the Democratic ticket along with either Bruce Lunsford or Greg Fischer in the U.S. Senate slot. Opposite them on the GOP side will be John McCain for president and U.S. Senator Mitch McConnell. 

McConnell's strength in Louisville, combined with McCain's appeal to not only conservatives but moderates and independent voters, could give Northup the added firepower she'll need to go up against the likes of Yarmuth. Despite his liberal voting record in Congress and inordinate amount of time on the golf course in this his first term, Yarmuth steered clear of making mistakes that would render him vulnerable in his first reelection contest.

That puts added pressure on Northup to combine forces with McCain and McConnell to get out the vote in Louisville. The intensity of their ground game could be matched by the the Democrats who are expected to concentrate their efforts in Louisville due to Obama's urban appeal versus the rest of Kentucky.

First, however, Northup has to win Tuesday's Republican primary where she faces opposition from a crowded field, including local real estate developer Chris Thieneman. He's cranked up the volume on his campaign in recent days but hasn't overcome self-inflicted wounds from when he abruptly withdrew his candidacy in January and declared himself a Democrat. Now, Thieneman's back in the running, but tomorrow's another day and maybe he'll change his mind.

On Tuesday, look for a Northup win and the start of the general election battle in which she's expected to ramp up her aggressive style of campaigning to win back the seat she lost in 2006.

Comments

Thieneman won't know what hit him. He flaked out and now look at the embarrassment he caused himself.

Yes, but Chris was right on target about Jack Richardson.

What did he say?

[Casual Observer]

Kentucky Golf Association
Valhalla Golf Club +0.5 Effective Date
05/09/2008
Kentucky Golf Association
Standard Country Club +0.5 Effective Date
05/09/2008

http://mt5493.ghinconnect.com/gh/iihbp82.cgi?y=1111011000010001100011&wherefrom=&whofrom=&backtourl=&backtourltarget=&L=1&T=1#

Seems the good Congressman with a .5 handicap and membership in two clubs has failed to post any scores in the handicap system since last August...is he hiding his rounds so folks can't see how often he plays and where? For golfers, failure to post one's rounds becomes an issue of integrity and honesty when one is claiming a handicap as Yarmuth is..especially since his game and handicap was featured in Golf Digest recently.

[bluegrassredstate]

however, what if obama abandons kentucky early in order to spend resources more wisely in actual swing states?

Excellent point, Jefferson! He may well forget he ever saw Kentucky . . . or Indiana . . . or the South. Obama pulls up stakes for the battleground states means McConnell/Northup have a better playing field in L-ville.

[Old Habits Die Hard]

When in the State House, Northup was like a smitten school girl over Stumbo. Whenever Stumbo needed a republican vote or someone to speak against another republican, he could count on her every time. She was there for him again against Fletcher. Old habits die hard.

Chris called Richardson out for his meddling in the primary back when Chris was in the race before Annie got in. Richardson basically said that the Republicans should clear the field for Annie. The whole thing got played out on the Francene show and PageOne Kentucky had the details. The audio clips are probably still in the archives there.

Annie was a good Congresswoman, and Lord knows Yarmulke needs to be ousted, but I'm not sure Annie's the person to do it. And I will always hold against her what she did to Ernie Fletcher. THe comment above about her buddying up with Stumbo is instructive. Annie could have been a staunch defender of Fletcher when Stumbo started his attack. Instead she stayed silent and then turned on Fletcher, causing him to spend a bunch of money in the spring that would have been better spent in the fall.

If Annie wins the primary I may have to sit this one out in the fall -- much like I"m going to sit out the presidential race.

[QuietUntilNow]

Northup was postal against Fletcher's staff.

Screaming and shouting obscenities at them like someone unstable. They took it and stayed quiet out of respect.

Fletcher even tried to defend her to them.

Then she ran against him and did the Democrat's dirty work for them.

That she can even be competitive in a GOP primary after such betrayal is unbelievable.

During the 2007 primary, I sat down in a room with other local GOP leaders and Fletcher backers to have a conversation with the governor about the community's needs and the political trends.

There was hurt in Fletcher's voice and on his face as he discussed Northup. He felt politically and personally betrayed by her -- and truth is, he was.

[QuietUntilNow]

Northup was more loyal to Stumbo.

11:11 - You are so right.

[Weatherman]

I voted for Anne for Governor last year...twice.

[QuietUntilNow]

The mistake was in trying to work with Northup in the first place. People like her aren't worth the time and effort. But Governor Fletcher did his best to help everyone even when it was not to his political advantange . . . indeed a great man.

[3rd D Paybacker]

Anne's about to find out how big a b---- payback is when many Republicans vote for Yarmuth as a reward for Anne's GOP loyalty. It doesn't always take a Weatherman.

[Weatherman]

9:28, the Republicans in Louisville will vote for Anne just as they did in last year's primary (I voted for her in November too). But you are right in that it didn't take me to know which the wind was blowing. Saint Ernie had no chance, even against the Democrat Party's B-team candidate. Of course our guy would not have been worthy of the frosh team even as a senior. Saint Ernie's little light was snuffed out and I am content.

[Payback's Here]

People like you, Weatherman, allowed St. Ernie to deal alone with a partisan hack AG criminal indictment, and all you did was bail. You and Mitch and Mike and every other cook of Ernie's broth. Yes Fletcher made mistakes which were purely his and , yes, his wife's. Still, you cowards bailed and you still cry because Queen Anne got her ass handed to her in the primary. She will get that ass handed to her again. Mark it down. PS Your buddy Dunc is doing great in DC isn't he? That's probably Ernie's bad too.

[QuietUntilNow]

Weatherman and his type cut and run when it's time to fight. Profiles in courage they are not. Good riddance to bad rubbish.

[Weatherman]

It would be helpful if you knew the whole story, but since you don't we will just leave it at that.

Yes, leave it at that Weatherman. You alone know all. I trust Beshear and his B Team gangsters sent you a thank you card and fruit basket. You deserved at least that. And Queen Anne will be handed her ass again come November. Mark it down.

[Weatherman]

That's fine, as long as Jesus-Freak Fletcher is no longer around. I'd just as soon spit in his face as I would vote for him.

I think that fruit basket was sent to Teddy boy.

[Fletcher loyalist]

Weatherman, I do know the whole story. Most of it starts with a little twerp that McConnell insisted the Fletcher administration hire; a guy named Druen. He got in there and started running wild, like a bull in a china shop, and it screwed everything.

McConnell had it totally within his power to bring the Stumbo investigation to a screeching halt. It would have taken one or two phone calls and a couple of public statements and Stumbo would have tucked tail and run. I know what I would have done had I been Mitch. And I know what Mitch did, too. Mitch backed Fletcher to the hilt, Fletcher accommodated Mitch in many decisions (including hiring that worthless piece of crap Druen). We all knew the Democrats were going to come out with all guns blazing because their little nest of power and control had been taken away from them. And when they did, people like Mitch and Annie were nowhere to be found. Ernie bent over backwards for them, and it eventually proved to be to his detriment.

I'm seriously thinking about voting for Lunsford this fall because of Mitch McConnell's shameful behavior.

[QuietUntilNow]

The more that was done for Northup and McConnell the more they DEMANDED. Weatherman's anger and name calling in this little exchange is a perfect example. "Jesus Freak" - please. (Sounds like an editorial writer.) But, that was the Northup and McConnell ham handed style.

[11th Commandment]

Weatherman -- spit in his face? Come on. You need therapy.

Dan Druen. Exactly how did that boy end up in Frankfort and where is he now? Maybe Lunsford will bring that up when Mitch starts his Vencor ads?