COMMONWEALTH POLL: General Assembly regular session was 'not successful,' Beshear approval rating stagnant

By an overwhelming 8-to-1 margin, Kentuckians cast a no vote on the General Assembly session just ended, according to the latest Commonwealth Poll.

Question 1: Successful or unsuccessful? In a survey of 557 Kentuckians conducted last night, fully 66% of those asked say the legislative session was unsuccessful versus only 8% who say it was. Nearly three in 10 surveyed had no opinion. Men were overwhelming in their nay verdict at 73% while women were a bit more charitable at 59% saying the session wasn't successful. Republicans, Democrats and Independents were about equal in their negative views, with 65% of R's and D's agreeing the session came up short.

Question 2: Who's to blame? As for pinning blame for the lack of success, Kentuckians said just about everyone. Governor Steve Beshear edges out the State Senate for the most blame at 34% compared to the Republican-held Senate at 33%. The Democrat-dominated House of Representatives is to blame, according to 23% of respondents.

By far, younger Kentuckians, or those 18 to 35, hold Beshear responsible for lack of success, by 58%. Women are less kind to the Senate, with 37% of them holding the upper house responsible for lack of progress versus Beshear at 28%. As might be expected, 49% of Republicans blame Beshear while 44% of Democrats blame the Senate. The House gets off the hook with both parties.

If you're a partisan Republican, you might derive some comfort in these numbers as fully 57% of Kentuckians blame the Democrat governor and Democrat House for an unsuccessful legislative session.

Question 3: Beshear's job approval. The governor has been in office only five months and now has nearly half of Kentuckians who don't approve of his job performance. When asked to rate the governor, 48% rate him favorably while 48% rate him unfavorably. This squares with the most recent SurveyUSA numbers on Beshear that show his favorable/unfavorable rating at 46%/48%.  Republicans and young people are the governor's harshest critics while one-third of his fellow Democrats don't give Beshear high marks. Even though the General Assembly passed a budget and Beshear signed it into law, other problems such as fumbling the casino gambling issue, appear to have taken their toll on the governor.

Question 4: Special session to raise taxes? Three-fourths of Kentuckians believe this is a bad idea. Only 15% of those sampled say the governor should go ahead and call a special session to raise taxes versus 74% who disapprove. Across the board, every demographic segment overwhelmingly opposes this idea. Based on these numbers, the governor may want to think at least twice before calling the legislature back to raise taxes. For whatever reason, Kentuckians aren't in a charitable mood to pay more to the Commonwealth.

Note: All responses were weighted according to gender, age and political party affiliation in order to reflect Kentucky's demographic makeup. Margin of error for the all questions was +/- 4.15%, except for the second question, where the margin of error was +/- 5.18% due to a smaller sample size. The poll was conducted statewide by telephone using a random selection method. Field work was conducted on April 17, 2008 by Rosetta Stone Communications of Atlanta, Georgia.

The Commonwealth Poll crosstabs

Question 1: The Kentucky General Assembly just concluded its 2008 regular session. How do you rate this year's session? Successful or Not Successful?

557 Kentuckians	All	Gender		Age Group				Party Affiliation
Margin of error +/- 4.15%		Men	Women	18-35	36-45	45-64	65+	Rep	Dem	Ind
Successful	8%	7%	8%	10%	8%	5%	10%	7%	8%	9%
Not successful	66%	73%	59%	66%	68%	71%	55%	65%	65%	59%
Undecided/Don’t Know	27%	20%	33%	24%	24%	23%	35%	28%	28%	32%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Composition	100%	48%	52%	29%	28%	26%	18%	36%	52%	12%

Question 2: [Asked if respondent said the session was not successful] Who deserves the blame for the unsuccessful session? Governor Steve Beshear, the Kentucky House of Representatives, or the Kentucky Senate?

358 Kentuckians	All	Gender		Age Group				Party Affiliation
Margin of error +/- 5.18%		Men	Women	18-35	36-45	45-64	65+	Rep	Dem	Ind
Governor Beshear	34%	34%	28%	58%	35%	30%	27%	49%	20%	33%
House of Representatives	23%	23%	23%	21%	31%	23%	22%	20%	26%	12%
Senate	33%	35%	37%	16%	27%	38%	39%	24%	44%	30%
Undecided/Don’t Know	10%	8%	12%	5%	8%	10%	13%	7%	10%	24%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Composition	100%	48%	52%	29%	28%	26%	18%	36%	52%	12%

Question 3: Governor Beshear is four months into his term as governor. What is your opinion about Governor Beshear's job performance so far? Do you Strongly Approve, Somewhat Approve, Somewhat Disapprove, or Strongly Disapprove?            

557 Kentuckians	All	Gender		Age Group				Party Affiliation
Margin of error +/- 4.15%		Men	Women	18-35	36-45	45-64	65+	Rep	Dem	Ind
Strongly Approve	12%	14%	11%	14%	16%	10%	13%	3%	16%	16%
Somewhat Approve	36%	31%	44%	21%	34%	41%	40%	22%	47%	45%
Somewhat Disapprove	28%	30%	24%	34%	29%	28%	23%	42%	20%	18%
Strongly Disapprove	20%	22%	17%	31%	18%	19%	16%	28%	13%	21%
Undecided/Don’t Know	3%	3%	4%	0%	3%	2%	6%	4%	4%	0%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Composition	100%	48%	52%	29%	28%	26%	18%	36%	52%	12%

Question 4: Governor Beshear has indicated that he might call the Kentucky General Assembly into special session to raise taxes. What is your opinion about a special session to raise taxes? Is it a Good Idea or a Bad Idea?

557 Kentuckians	All	Gender		Age Group				Party Affiliation
Margin of error +/- 4.15%		Men	Women	18-35	36-45	45-64	65+	Rep	Dem	Ind
Good idea	15%	21%	12%	7%	24%	17%	13%	7%	19%	23%
Bad idea	74%	72%	74%	86%	71%	71%	74%	87%	67%	64%
Undecided/Don’t Know	11%	8%	14%	7%	5%	12%	14%	6%	15%	13%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Composition	100%	48%	52%	29%	28%	26%	18%	36%	52%	12%

Comments

Incredible! Beshear's toast!

Too bad Democrats listened to the wrong Brown about Mr. Burns Beshear. Even Judge Graham can't whitewash this debacle.

There'll be many folks in the gov's office who won't like these numbers, but have only themselves to blame.

I want to be the Lt. Governor when I grow up. Over 100g to do absolutely nothing.

Wow. . . One-third of Dems say Beshear is doing a bad job as governor. That's terrible news for the guy who was supposed to bring them back to power for another 30 years.

Over 4% margin of error is statisticly questionable and over 5% margin of error is statisticly invalid.

Every poll SurveyUSA puts out are greater than 4% MOE. And while 5% isn't great, it's good enough to draw the conclusions that Brett has.

You guys all got it wrong.

It's Ernie Fletcher's fault.

(I wish someone would start selling "Don't Blame Me, I Voted for Fletcher" stickers. I'd cover my vehicles with them.

I think you will find that +/- 5% is within the margin of error for a significant number of elections, except for oh say the last Governor's election.

[S. Holmes]

What was the breakdown on the question,

When will the Fletcher surplus be found?

Editor's Note: The surplus was stated and acknowledged in the budget discussions and is calculated in this budget as well as the over 200 million that is in the rainy day fund. You may also recall two years ago when House Democrats, including Speaker Richards and A&R Chairman Moberly said we didn't need to have much money in a rainy day fund. They conveniently forgot about that, didn't they?