Obama campaign predicts Clinton will win Kentucky primary

Bloomberg News announced last week that it had a leaked spreadsheet from the Barack Obama presidential campaign that detailed the campaign's projections of state-by-state results. Obama's campaign spokesman, Bill Burton said of the leaked spreadsheet, "This 'newsy' spreadsheet is basically an electronic piece of scratch paper with a dozen scenarios blown a little out of proportion," but did not deny the authenticity of the document.

The big news for Kentucky Democrats? Obama expects Hillary Clinton to win Kentucky's Democrat primary 56% to 42%.

KYPolitics.org reported last week that SurveyUSA polling showed more Democrats favored John McCain over Barack Obama than McCain over Hillary Clinton in the fall horse race. The SurveyUSA numbers tend to support the predictions of the Obama campaign. Of the pledged delegates, which are allocated by congressional district, Obama expects to win 23, while Clinton takes 28.

Kentucky is among only eight remaining state contests that Obama expects Clinton to win. Of the remaining 23 state contests, Obama predicts he will win 15 and head into the Democrat National Convention with a lead in pledged delegates.

Any marginal lead Obama takes into the convention in pledged delegates may be academic if Clinton continues to lead in unpledged superdelegates that can swing the nomination to her. That's why Obama and Clinton continue to scrap for superdelegate endorsements in Kentucky and elsewhere. These endorsements translate to votes at the convention and can help swing primary results in the remaining contests.

In Kentucky, the only Democrat superdelegate to endorse thus far is Congressman John Yarmuth of Louisville. Bill Bryant of WKYT TV in Lexington thinks that Governor Steve Beshear is enjoying the courtship of both the Clinton and Obama camps. We suspect that Obama has an inside track to Beshear, as Beshear's chief of staff Jim Cauley was Obama's campaign manager in his run for the U.S. Senate. However, with Beshear's recent loss of political capital in the 30th District senatorial race, it is unlikely he would be willing to bet on a candidate who expects himself to lose in Kentucky.

Picking between Clinton and Obama would only tend to alienate one of the two wings of the Democrat party in Kentucky, so we don't expect Beshear to weigh in on this race. However, if he's in desperate need of political capital by the beginning of May, having lost the fight for casino gambling in the General Assembly, look for Beshear to go with Clinton so that he can appear to have influenced the race outcome and notch one up in the win column.

Comments

[Velcro-Hillbilly]

Let's see who REALLY wants Steve Beshear's endorsement. Were I the Clintons, I'd let Barack have it.

[Hillbilly Delight]

With all of the momentum Obama has right now (just swept four states this past weekend), if he continues to have the momentum, then this may change the chances of him winning in Kentucky in MAY, which is forever away. If he is able to increase his momentum, he will carry Kentucky too.

I hope to see the Governor endorse Obama. We need real change in Washington and the Bush and Clinton families have been in the White House since 1980! 28 years later, we need real change.

I felt the author of this article is pulling for Hillary.

[HD]

By the way, this prediction sheet from the Obama campaign expected Clinton to win Maine; however, we know now today that Obama has beat her instead!

[Barack Attack!]

Doesn't really matter who wins the Democratic nomination. John McCain's the next Prez.

[Friend of Dick Morris]

Thinking about voting for the Clintons? Before you do, read the following:

BILL CLINTON: ROGUE CO-PRESIDENT IN WAITING

By DICK MORRIS & EILEEN MCGANN

Published on FOXNews.com on February 1, 2008.

Make no mistake about it: If Hillary Clinton is elected president, her husband will be her rogue co-president, causing constant chaos, crises and conflicts for her new administration.

And sometimes, that will be exactly what Hillary wants.

Chaos is Bill Clinton’s signature style and he’s not about to suddenly change. No way.

Nor does Hillary necessarily want him to be a new Bill. In many ways, his divisive role in her campaign has been carefully crafted by Hillary and her team. It might come in useful in the White House, too.

(Click the link below for the "rest of the story".)

http://www.vote.com/mmp_printerfriendly.php?id=718

[HD]

This "secret leaked card" is totally pointless.....it is even wrong about the Virginia and Maryland election. Obama's card predicted him to win by 2 and 4 points in those contests and he won by 20-30 points! KY will go for Obama in May....just wait and see.

[Lex]

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