Bunning, leaning towards retirement, contemplates his successor

Sources are confirming what most Washington political insiders have long expected: U.S. Sen. Jim Bunning is leaning towards retirement and contemplating backing a potential successor.

This is the first overt indication that Bunning, 76, plans on making this term his last in D.C.  Previously, Bunning had publicly indicated he would run for a third term. 

Shortly after winning reelection in 2004, Bunning took steps towards preparing for 2010.  He opened an account with the Federal Election Commission, allowing him to raise money for a bid.  In a statement released by his campaign at the time, he declared: "There is still much more left to be done" and that "I am at the top of my game right now."

He has held a series of small fundraisers over the past couple years, helping him to raise nearly $400,000 in contributions.  (Expenditures have been relatively high for Bunning, though.  His campaign account has dished out $465,932 this cycle, mostly on airfare and travel expenses.  As of Sept. 30, 2007, he has only $189,167 on hand.)

While maintaining his desire to run for reelection in public statements, Bunning's actions have become increasingly erratic - even for the unpredictable junior senator.  His decision to emphatically endorse Anne Northup in the 2007 gubernatorial primary ended up seperating him from the majority of the Republican base, which remained loyal to Gov. Ernie Fletcher.  He was the only Senator to make comments critical of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke prior to his confirmation.  And, in an even more baffling move, Bunning was one of only two Republicans to stand in opposition to the appointment of Defense Secretary Robert Gates.  Bunning claimed Gates lacked "solutions." In sharp contrast to Bunning, U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell offered high praise for Gates, using words like "leader, intelligence and candor."

Bunning, once a popular figure who won the Republican nomination for Kentucky governor in 1983 before being elected to the U.S. House and eventually the Senate, has seen his poll numbers drop over the past several years.  A recent SurveyUSA poll showed a 43/43 approval/disapproval rating.  His recent behavior, on the heels of a razor thin win over Dan Mongiardo in 2004, has been a hot topic of conversation in Republican circles.  Many have approached the 2010 race as an open contest, and some GOP insiders have talked openly of providing a serious primary challenge to Bunning if he were to run.

(Bunning remains popular in parts of the state, including northern Kentucky.  His stance on immigration, which stood opposite to McConnell's inital position, was widely celebrated by many conservatives.)

Perhaps sensing a difficult battle, Bunning is now leaning towards retirement, sources say.  While a final decision has not been made, Bunning and other GOP officials are actively contemplating a consensus nominee for 2010.

Secretary of State Trey Grayson, who won reelection last month in impressive fashion, might be their guy.  Multiple sources, providing information on the condition of anonymity, tell KyPolitics.org that Grayson recently met with both Bunning and McConnell to discuss his interest in Bunning's seat.

For a Republican Party that took a drubbing in all but Grayson and Ag Commissioner Richie Farmer's races last month, Grayson is an obvious choice.  Winning election as a rookie politician in 2003, Grayson's first term as Secretary of State was praised by both the public and the press.  In his recent re-election campaign, he received endorsements from virtually every major newspaper in Kentucky and raised a record amount for a down-ticket statewide Republican candidate.  His continued sucess and likability make it unlikely that Grayson would face a serious primary challenge, if he were to decide to run in 2010.

Some have suggested Anne Northup as a potential candidate, but her campaign would face pretty serious obstacles.  Her challenge of Fletcher left many bitter.  And unlike Trey Grayson, who split with Fletcher, reconciled and then endorsed and supported the Governor, Northup left things split.  Her refusal to publicly endorse Fletcher in the general election stands in stark contrast to Grayson, and might prove to be a fatal flaw in a battle for votes within the party.  She also remains vulnerable on a variety of conservative issues, many of which Fletcher exploited late in the 2007 primary.  Northup would undoubtedly attract primary competition if she chose to run.

Other potential candidates include members of the Congressional delegation: 1st District Rep. Ed Whitfield, 4th District Rep. Geoff Davis and 5th District Rep. Hal Rogers.  Whitfield and Rogers have shown little interest in running statewide and, while both would make good candidates, there is little buzz from their camps.  Davis might be a wild-card contender, but would likely defer to Grayson's experience having run two successful statewide campaigns.

Observers also should not ignore Bunning's interest in keeping northern Kentucky's regional influence strong in the federal delegation. With his interest in steering federal funding toward projects like the I-75 Brent Spence Bridge, Bunning would more likely support a fellow northern Kentuckian like Grayson rather than Louisvillian Anne Northup or western Kentuckian Ed Whitfield, who have major bridge project needs in their respective home areas.

Grayson is reportedly less interested in running in the next governor's race in 2011, as some have suggested he could.  An open Senate seat, which Grayson could run for while still enjoying the shelter of his current office, has to be more attractive than a campaign for the Governor's Mansion against an entrenched Democrat incumbent. 

The election is still three years away, and other major political events will happen between now and then, including McConnell's own race for reelection next year.  But there is a growing sense of urgency to start laying the ground work, heightened by the long list of potential Democrat candidates.  2004 challenger Mongiardo, who will be sworn in as Lt. Gov. next week, may now lead that field of possibles, which also includes U.S. Rep. Ben Chandler, Attorney General-elect Jack Conway and others.  (Stay tuned.  We'll examine that side further in the coming days.) 

And McConnell, Bunning and Grayson are surely aware of how much more formidable the Democrats will be - almost immediately - after next Tuesday. 

Comments

Brett- Tell us more about this meeting between McConnell, Bunning, and Trey. McConnell was in NKY on Friday. Was that when it took place?

I'd much rather have Trey as a senator than as governor. I could never support Trey for governor after what he pulled at Fancy Farm last year, but I think he'd be OK in the Senate.

Chandler would destroy any dem that tries to run against him-

Trey has too much neck fat to be a governor or senator

Trey would be an excellent candidate, but so would Northup. Seems like Brett will continue to take every opportunity to tear down Anne because she dared to challenge his governor. I also pick up on the same sentiments he has towards Bunning in this article.

Northup proved she can't win statewide, even against a flawed candidate. Time for you Northup stalwarts to move on - apparently even Bunning and McConnell have.

The obstacles for Northup are obvious. And Brett did a solid job pointing them out. All the rhetoric from McConnell's camp - from election night on - points to Grayson being their pick. Scott Jennings essentially said as much on TV that night.

[Grayson Fan]

Grayson for U.S. Senate? Where do I sign?

[Guitar Hero]

I'm sure there would be a Democrats for Trey group if he decided to run for the Senate.

[Toby Keith]

I hear that girl friend of Mongiardo's is driving around in my pickup. There goes my vote for him in 2010.

Doesn't Bunning have a weekly conference call on Tuesday? Should be interesting. I'm sure he'll deny this story.

[Jimmy Dean Bishop]

Ole' Turkey Neck is not ready for the big time. With his soft-spoken sweet little lispy voice. We'll see what folks have to say if he makes a run for center stage.

Bunning's conference call tomorrow should be interesting. Is he going to deny that he met with Grayson and McConnell?

[Weatherman]

Maybe Dr Danny will get in again, if he can ever quit hanging out with little Jackie Conway.

Trey Grayson is absolutely ready for center stage. During the election, he showed up to every parade (often walking as the only Repub candidate), bbq and friggin fish fry. He worked the phones like a pro, raised a million for his race and aced every press conference, often taking time to spend a little one on one with reporters. He's got a great family, a top-notch education and cross-appeal with Dems (which we all know ya gotta have to win).
I don't know about the Bunning retirement rumors...but this is fact...Trey Grayson can run and win any race he wants. It ain't just pedigree folks...it's hard work. And Trey has shown he's not above doing it.

Knowing 2010 is light years away in politics, Bunning has the right to deny this very blog story about retirement ... His denial should keep every Republican on their toes and be ready to run a formable candidate if retirement is the case.

If I was in charge of replacing as well as recruiting conservative Republican candidates, current Republicans office holders all around the country would have a candidate in waiting. Candidates in waiting would only come to light when the office holder steps out of line or needs to retire thus the person may remove themselves without nation wide panic.

Well in the end Grayson or Northup would be excellent candidates wherever the Kentucky Republican Party places them. By the way I'm sorry if Fletcher got his feelings hurt over Northup, but in my opinion he should get over her since he sold us a bill of goods. Fletcher had the Ohio Governor Taft syndrome, which conservatives such as Ken Blackwell paid the price. So anybody connected and/or close to Governor Fletcher will have to prove themselves even more.

P.S. Mr. Hall I hope you have other conservative issues you could push besides if Bunning is going to retire or not. Look at this way Bunning retires he’ll be “the liar” when he changes his mind in the public arena. So you win if Bunning retires! Thank you in advance for reading my opinionated comments. I appreciate it.

*A Must Read...from Red State..... in 2004

Mr. Hall, According to Red State ... the last 4 years the GOP of KY has been for warned about how the party should look or appoint a successor for Sen. Bunning. Thank you in advance once again for reading my opionioned comments. I appreciated it.

Here's the Link Below:

http://jadedmara.redstate.com/story/2004/10/14/154012/91

Attacks against Sen. Bunning (R-KY):By Mark P Posted in User Blogs

— Comments (1)

Because he's slipped a gear or two by Gengisdon

"Bottom line, take a deep breath and stop worrying about Bunning. Do start thinking about his appointed successor"